THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER OCTOBER 7: CONFLICT, REALIGNMENT, AND THE RESHAPING OF REGIONAL ORDER

Abstract

The attacks of October 7th were a turning point in Middle Eastern politics, leading to a crisis that was felt across the region and had far reaching consequences beyond the Gaza War itself. This study analyzes the transformation of the regional order in the Middle East following October 7, including the process of conflict escalation, strategic adjustment and the distribution of power. The study utilizes a qualitative form of explanatory research design, its main theoretical frameworks are Neorealism and Regional Security Complex Theory, and process tracing and comparative case study methods are used to analyze major regional actors (Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar) from October 2023 to May 2026. The results show that 7 October not only furthered the shift away from the previous regional normalization, but also brought about a decline in the traditional order of deterrence and a swelling of proxy warfare and interstate competition as well. The study also reveals slow progress towards Arab–Israel normalization and a renewed strategic importance of non-state actors and a growing multipolar model of the region's geopolitics. It suggests the region's political and security structure will undergo a fundamental change after October 7 and that the post-October 7 Middle East is headed for a period of ‘managed instability', with multipolarities, fragmented alliances and a continued state of insecurity.