PAKISTAN’S DETERRENCE POSTURE AFTER MAY 2025 CONFLICT: RELEVANCE, LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE TRAJECTORIES

Abstract

The May 2025 standoff between Pakistan and India is arguably one of the most significant post-nuclear crises in South Asia. It revealed the effectiveness, as well as the limited nature of deterrence in a multi-domain security setting. This paper re-evaluates the applicability of nuclear deterrence following the May 2025 episode by using a Pakistan-oriented analytical lens. It integrates knowledge of the classical theory of deterrence, stability-instability paradox, and the latest research on technological transformation in the modern military strategy. The study proposes that nuclear deterrence ensured high strategic stability, yet it was washed away at the conventional and sub-conventional levels. The commitment of India to use graded punitive military response and the corresponding proportionate and technologically adaptive response of Pakistan indicates a deterrence environment in transition. This landscape is built on the basis of asymmetries in the abilities, shifts in the doctrinal preferences, and the rapidity of the crisis emergence. Sub-conventional triggers continue to be a source of persistent instability due to outstanding political differences, rival threat statements, and momentum in diplomatic interactions. The paper concludes that crisis behaviour between the two states is still framed on the issue of deterrence. However, its performance is becoming more contingent and circumstantial upon technological, doctrinal, and political factors. In the case of Pakistan, contemporary and multi-domain deterrence will need recalibration to maintain future stability, as well as to maintain credible nuclear capabilities.