ENERGY WARFARE IN THE ONGOING IRAN–ISRAEL WAR: EFFECTS ON REGIONAL SECURITY AND GLOBAL OIL MARKETS

Abstract

Weaponization of the energy resources has become one of the characteristic elements of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which has essentially transformed the dynamics of regional security and the markets of hydrocarbons in the world. This qualitative research paper has analyzed the use of energy-related instruments by Iran and Israel such as threats to maritime chokepoints, proxy-driven energy infrastructure attacks, sanctions regimes and strategic disruption of oil transit passages as coercive instruments of statecraft. Secondary sources were selected based on energy publications, geopolitical reports, policy reports, and official international news published in 2005-24. A purposive sampling was used to select literature that directly relates to oil-route vulnerabilities, energy infrastructure targeting, sanctions dynamics and disruptions in the market due to conflicts. Thematic analysis revealed that there are five main themes, including energy disruption as an asymmetric instrument, the strategic centrality of maritime chokepoints, oil price volatility as a geopolitical tool, the decline of regional energy security, and the insufficiency of the existing international governance regimes. The paper concluded that Iran has been able to build the potential to threaten about twenty percent of the world's traded seaborne oil by credibly threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and that proxy networks have increased the geographic area of infrastructure vulnerability. On the other hand, the Iranian export capacities have been limited by U.S.-led and Israel-aligned sanctions regimes, and has increased the pace of Iranian efforts to seek sanctions-resistant energy suppliers in Russia and China. All these interplaying processes have created a state of chronic price volatility, high risk premiums in energy markets and fault lines in the regional security architecture of the Middle East. The paper ends by giving recommendations of diversified energy routing, enhanced multilateral governance and integrated diplomatic-economic engagement structures.